Sub-seasonal weather forecasting project

Project highlights

We're working on improving weather forecasting to help predict business impact.

Ofwat project funding

£678,750

Collaboration

We're working with nine partners

Project status

Due to be completed in March 2025

Challenge: Adapting to increasingly extreme weather

We face challenges of increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This challenge highlights the need for improved forecasting capabilities within the water industry. Traditional weather forecasts typically cover a 10-14 day period. However, longer-range predictions are crucial for effective planning and resource management.

Solution: Sub-seasonal forecasting for enhanced resilience

Our sub-seasonal weather forecasting project aims to:

Enhance understanding of how weather impacts water and wastewater management

Develop a reliable weather impact-based modelling and forecasting system. It will forecast impactful weather events up to 4-6 weeks ahead

Improve resource allocation and operational management in areas vulnerable to severe weather

More and more we are seeing the devastating impact of extreme weather events across the country. To help the water industry meet the challenges due to climate change, it is vital we have the tools to better forecast weather patterns and adapt our infrastructure and resources for the benefit of our customers

Ian Savage

Strategic Control Manager (London), Thames Water

How the project works

The project is in partnership with the Met Office and other partner UK water companies. We're using the Decider tool developed by the Met Office. It's a forecasting system that can be used to predict large-scale weather patterns over the UK.

By linking weather patterns to business impacts, we can develop alerting tools. The tools can communicate potential risks. This enables more informed decision-making compared to relying on climatology or seasonal estimates.

We'll build on previously developed sub-seasonal water demand models. This will be tailored for each participating water company.

In parallel, the project will explore wastewater applications for sub-seasonal forecasting. It will develop a model that increases the predictability of alarm volumes. This is in order to improve operational management decision-making for wastewater.

Timeline and collaboration

The project, funded by £678,750 from Ofwat involves involving nine partners. Its scheduled for completion in March 2025.

It underscores our proactive approach to managing weather-related challenges. Whilst also ensuring a reliable water and wastewater service for our customers.