Sub-seasonal weather forecasting project
Project highlights
We've improved weather forecasting to help predict business impact.
Ofwat project funding
£678,750
Collaboration
We worked with eight partners
Project status
Completed in May 2025
Challenge: Adapting to increasingly extreme weather
We faced challenges of increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This challenge highlighted the need for improved forecasting capabilities within the water industry. Traditional weather forecasts typically cover a 10-14 day period. However, longer-range predictions are crucial for effective planning and resource management.
Solution: Sub-seasonal forecasting for enhanced resilience
Our sub-seasonal weather forecasting project helped to:
Enhance understanding of how weather impacts water and wastewater management
Develop a reliable weather impact-based modelling and forecasting system. It will forecast impactful weather events up to 4-6 weeks ahead
Improve resource allocation and operational management in areas vulnerable to severe weather
How the project worked
The project was in partnership with the Met Office and other partner UK water companies. We used the Decider tool developed by the Met Office. It's a forecasting system that can be used to predict large-scale weather patterns over the UK.
By linking weather patterns to business impacts, we developed alerting tools. The tools can communicate potential risks. This enables more informed decision-making compared to relying on climatology or seasonal estimates.
We've built on previously developed sub-seasonal water demand models. This will be tailored for each participating water company.
In parallel, the project explored wastewater applications for sub-seasonal forecasting. It has developed a model that increases the predictability of alarm volumes. This is in order to improve operational management decision-making for wastewater.
Timeline and collaboration
The project, funded by £678,750 from Ofwat involved eight partners and was completed in May 2025.
It underscores our proactive approach to managing weather-related challenges. Whilst also ensuring a reliable water and wastewater service for our customers.